At this time of the year, I often receive inquiries from fantasy baseball enthusiasts seeking an edge for the upcoming season or from fans eager to know about potential breakout players on their favorite MLB teams. Hence, let’s pinpoint the most promising breakout candidate for each of the 30 clubs.
When I refer to a breakout season, I’m not merely talking about surpassing last year’s WAR. It’s relatively simple to select young players who are gradually earning more playing time to achieve that. Instead, I’m focusing on players under 30 years old whom I anticipate will exceed their projected WAR by at least half a win. This assessment relies on FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, considering both playing quality and playing time. Therefore, this isn’t solely a compilation of top prospects, projected stars, or individuals entering their prime. We have intriguing sleepers suitable for fantasy leagues and post-hype selections as well.
Thomas, a former top-100 prospect, initially struggled in his MLB career. Despite his speed, he consistently fell short of expectations in his first two seasons, which is unusual for such a player. However, his recent strong performances in the 2023 playoffs and the 2024 spring training suggest an upward trend. Projections also indicate a positive trajectory, but I anticipate him surpassing those expectations. Similarly, Pfaadt has shown signs of improvement in the majors.
Austin Riley emerges as an under-the-radar choice, especially with the projection predicting defensive regression following his notable improvement in 2023. Additionally, either Adam Duvall or Jarred Kelenic appears poised to outperform their projection, though it’s challenging to decide between them. Smith-Shawver, positioned as the Braves’ sixth starter, is primed to make an impact, particularly with opportunities in Triple-A and the presence of established pitchers like Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez in the rotation.
Two other strong contenders are infielders patiently awaiting their chance in the big leagues: Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday. While there’s a deep pool of infielders on the roster, Holliday seems to be ahead in the call-up hierarchy. However, the timing of these call-ups remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the potential for shifts in playing time, particularly in positions like first base, designated hitter, or corner outfield, presents opportunities for players like Cowser, who demonstrated impressive form in spring training.
Brayan Bello presents a viable option, but Casas appears to be the standout choice. At just 24 years old, there’s still ample room for growth, especially considering the modest expectations in the projections. Maintaining good health and improving at the plate, considering his slight misfortune in 2023, should suffice.
The Cubs’ strategy with young players will heavily influence the breakout potential of candidates like Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and Cade Horton. Tauchman and Wicks also play a role in this dynamic, but my confidence lies more in Suzuki’s continued improvement, especially given his impressive spring and performance last year.
Leasure stands out as a promising middle-tier prospect for the White Sox, capable of thriving in late-inning situations, while Kopech and Vaughn are post-hype sleepers worth monitoring for potential breakouts.
De La Cruz’s projection comes with a significant margin of uncertainty, yet I lean towards optimism due to his exceptional skills and surprisingly astute game sense in the upper minors. Noelvi Marte, post-suspension, is poised to exceed expectations, and at least one of the trio of pitchers—Andrew Abbott, Connor Phillips, and Tony Santillan—appears likely to surpass their projections comfortably.
DeLauter seems destined for early big league exposure, with even a productive September stint capable of yielding respectable WAR numbers. Meanwhile, Brayan Rocchio emerges as a solid choice for the Guardians.
Toglia benefits from a negative WAR projection, but his potential as the Rockies’ primary right fielder, combined with promising signs from spring training, positions him as a breakout candidate. Bouchard also presents an opportunity to outperform projections, while high-variance players like Hunter Goodman and Brenton Doyle showcase skills that could lead to significant improvements.
In Detroit, numerous young talents and prospects are ready to make an impact, including Carpenter, Torkelson, Keith, Meadows, Jung, and Mize. Nonetheless, Flaherty stands out as the clear choice for a breakout, particularly considering the signs pointing towards a return to his breakout form of 2018-19.
There are other young position players like Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez who may need to bide their time for big league opportunities, along with a resurgent setup man in Nate Pearson and a recent high-variance signing in Yariel Rodriguez. Tiedemann’s exceptional talent suggests he could force his way into the big league rotation sooner than expected, potentially emerging as a frontline starter by season’s end.