In recent matches, Auston Matthews, the top center for the Toronto Maple Leafs, has encountered some struggles compared to his exceptional goal-scoring performance earlier in the season. Across the last eight games, he’s managed only two goals and four points, bringing his totals for the season to 54 goals and 80 points in 63 games. While averaging two goals every eight games is decent, it’s a noticeable drop from his remarkable pace of 77 goals before this slump. Not only has his goal-scoring declined, but his underlying performance metrics have also shown a dip, suggesting it’s more than just a run of bad luck.
Although Matthews’ underlying stats haven’t exactly plummeted during this period, there’s been a slight decrease in his performance indicators. For instance, his expected goals share (xGF%) has decreased from his season average of 54.44% to 53.94%, ranking him lower among forwards on the team. This suggests a relative decline in his performance compared to his teammates, despite the team’s overall improvement. This decline is also reflected in his reduced shot accuracy and fewer rush attempts per game, resulting in lower individual expected goals (ixG) and fewer high-danger scoring chances.
An interesting observation is the increase in Matthews’ physical play during this slump, with a significant rise in hits per 60 minutes and an uptick in giveaways. This could suggest his frustration with scoring droughts manifesting in more aggressive play and occasional puck mishandling.
Additionally, luck plays a part, as evidenced by Matthews’ low shooting percentage over the past eight games, resulting in a PDO well below average. However, given his exceptional shooting abilities, his overall season PDO of 1.019 seems fair, though his recent PDO of .949 indicates a streak of unusually poor luck. Despite this, his strong underlying statistics suggest a probable return to his usual high-scoring form in the near future.